There will be some heartfelt embraces and laughter when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Washington and meets President Donald Trump later Thursday. That won’t be all, though.
Over the years, Trump and Modi have established a close personal relationship that has been demonstrated by high-profile meetings and appearances together. The White House said they will also have a joint press briefing this time.
Other occasions, such as their combined attendance at sizable rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad, have strengthened their relationship since their initial encounter in Washington in 2017. Their common philosophies, worldviews, and strategic emphasis on opposing China—a worry that has also bolstered the larger US-India partnership—are the foundation of their chemistry.
Trump has frequently criticized India, which is not surprising, but he has never criticized Modi.
Therefore, the two leaders will likely spend time discussing the next steps in the strategic partnership between the United States and India, which is currently doing well, during Modi’s visit.
According to reports, Modi will meet with members of the Indian-American community, US business executives, and numerous members of Trump’s cabinet.
He might also run into Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. Musk opening a Tesla facility in India would please Modi, who is eager to expand India’s rapidly growing electric vehicle industry.
However, the conviviality between Trump and Modi and the ebullient rhetoric of their strategic cooperation may conceal a depressing fact: Modi’s visit will highlight the transactional nature of the relationship, as each leader, particularly Trump, will be armed with a number of demands.
Delhi is familiar with Trump. In his previous tenure, which included a portion of the first Trump administration, Modi had several of his current cabinet ministers. Since Trump’s inauguration last month, Delhi has made it clear that it is eager to purchase American oil, reduce tariffs, and repatriate undocumented Indian people.
The first jet landed in India last week, and it has already reduced some prices and repatriated 104 undocumented Indians. The purpose of these preventive measures is to lessen the possibility of conflict with the incoming Trump administration and to stop Trump from making particular demands on India.
However, in order to further reduce the US goods and services trade deficit with India, which has recently exceeded $46 billion (£37.10 billion), Trump can persuade Modi to lower tariffs even more.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday night that prior to his meeting with Modi, Trump would declare reciprocal tariffs on other nations.
However, a challenge can turn into a chance: Modi might urge Trump to engage in bilateral negotiations on an agreement on economic cooperation aimed at lowering both parties’ tariffs.
Delhi has become more eager to explore trade agreements in recent years. Unlike the Biden administration, which placed onerous labor and environmental requirements on new trade agreements, the Trump administration might turn out to be a more amenable negotiator.
Trump might also request that Modi repatriate other Indians without documentation. Delhi will have a challenging and delicate situation to handle given that some estimates place the number at around 700,000, making them the third-largest group of its kind in the US.
After stories of Indian citizens being chained incited outrage, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told parliament last week that the government was collaborating with the US to make sure they weren’t abused during their deportation.
Additionally, Trump might urge Modi to purchase more American oil.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused significant changes in the world’s energy markets, which led Delhi to increase its imports of inexpensive oil from its close ally Russia. In 2021, India was the leading destination for American oil exports. The amount of oil that India is ready to purchase from the US will depend on the price point.
Modi might also bring his own energy request, which is to invest in nuclear energy in India. In an effort to increase global interest in the fuel, Delhi has launched a new nuclear energy mission and is changing its nuclear liability law.
By 2030, India wants to use renewable energy to cover 50% of its energy needs. Requesting that Trump invest in nuclear energy is a possible compromise: it is less polluting than fossil fuels, but it is also very different from solar and wind energy, which may not be appealing to the Trump administration.
It’s likely that technology will be covered as well.
Due to the 2022 implementation of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), which both parties see as a new cornerstone for strategic engagement, this area saw rapid growth in bilateral relations during the Biden administration. The two national security advisers must be personally involved with iCET since it is intended to be directly controlled by them in order to prevent bureaucratic snags.
Trump and his National Security Advisor Mike Waltz will probably be asked to reassure Modi that they are still committed to this. They most likely will, considering Washington’s emphasis on retaliating against China by increasing India’s share of global supply chains in the technology sector.
Regarding tech cooperation, Modi can also try to convince Trump to keep the H-1B visa system in place. Numerous Indian tech professionals in the US have been granted these highly skilled foreign worker visas, which have drawn harsh criticism from some powerful Trump supporters.
As part of a larger Indian plan to improve connection with Central Asia through Iran and Afghanistan, Delhi is collaborating with Tehran to build a port in Chabahar. However, the US administration hinted at lifting sanctions waivers for companies operating in Chabahar in a presidential memorandum last week that detailed Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
Modi might want to know just what this means for Delhi.
Trump might also assess Modi’s stance on ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, two major foreign policy priorities.
The conclusion of these wars is of great relevance to Delhi. Modi shares Trump’s stance on the war in Ukraine, which is to call for an end to the conflict without criticizing Russia or Putin.
Given India’s unique connection with Russia and its strong links to Israel, Trump might ask Modi whether he would be interested in acting as a third-party mediator as well. Only if the parties are open to outside mediation would Modi likely feel comfortable doing so.
Both presidents, however, will try to keep the tone upbeat despite some potentially sensitive conversations this week.
The Indo-Pacific Quad will be just what the doctor ordered in that respect.
This coalition, which focuses on opposing Beijing and includes the US, India, Japan, and Australia, has Trump’s strong support.
During his first administration, Biden took the Quad’s yearly meetings to the level of leaders, while Trump raised them to that of foreign ministers.
Modi may invite Trump to Delhi to attend the Quad summit, which India is hosting this year.
Despite his alleged dislike of foreign travel, Trump is likely eager to visit India in order to strengthen his personal ties with Modi and to develop a complex bilateral partnership that goes far beyond the transactionalism that will rule Washington this week.
The director of the South Asia Institute of the Wilson Center in Washington is Michael Kugelman.
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