The dollar’s movement, the danger to US Fed Chairman Powell’s position at the central bank, and the tariff talks between the US and China are the basis for the short-term forecast for gold.
On Monday, gold’s rising trend continues. In the face of growing fears about global trade and a declining US dollar, gold surged more than 1% to surpass $3,380 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high.
President Trump’s strong message regarding gold on his Truth Social platform seems to have reignited interest in the metal.
Also Read : gold news india today 24 carat : April, 2025
Trump’s stance on gold conveys a powerful message about gold ownership. “The Golden Rule Of Negotiating And Success: He Who Has The Gold Makes The Rules” is the title of the April 20 post on Donald Trump’s Truth Social. I’m grateful.
It’s interesting to note that Trump also stated, “The Golden Rule of Negotiating: He who has the gold makes the rules,” in a 2013 post on X (previously Twitter).
Since then, Russia’s reserves have grown from 1,035 to 2,333 tonnes between 2013 and 2023. China’s stockpiles rose from 1,054 to 2,235 tonnes in 2023. Turkey now ranks third in terms of gold holdings, which increased from 116 tonnes in 2013 to 540 tonnes in 2023.
Recently, central banks have begun purchasing large amounts of gold. As of December 2024, the United States has the world’s largest gold reserves, at 8,134 tons, followed by Germany. China and India lag far behind with gold reserves of 2,280 and 876 tons, respectively.
On the global market, the price of gold has risen to $3,380 and is very close to $3,400. A short-term aim of $3,500 for an ounce of gold is being advocated by certain analysts. The current price of gold in India is Rs 96,420, only 3.7% short of the price at which 10 grams of 24 carat gold would get Rs 1 lakh.
Gold has increased 41% over the past 12 months, and a number of factors are supporting the price increase.
The shock to the equity market has also led to the gold rush. Over the past 25 years, gold has continuously done well during periods of stress on the global share market. According to historical data, the price of gold increases significantly if the S&P 500 declines by more than 20%.
For instance, gold increased 39% during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis while the S&P 500 plunged 57%. Similarly, stocks fell 35% and gold rose 32% during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The S&P 500 fell 49% and gold rose 21% during the dot-com bubble, which followed a similar trend.
The S&P 500 has now dropped about 20% from its recent peak under the current tariff war scenario, while gold has already increased by more than 25% in the same time frame.
The dollar movement, the threat to US Fed chairman Powell’s job at the central bank, and the tariff talks between the US and China will all affect gold’s short-term prognosis.
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